NEW JERSEY, October 31, 2026 — With the November 3 congressional elections just days away, New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District is attracting renewed attention after two major election analysis organizations revised their assessments of the race.
Republican Congressman Jeff Van Drew, who has represented the district since 2019, is seeking another term against Democratic challenger Zack Mullock, the mayor of Cape May, and independent candidate Ramon Mora Jr.
The district covers Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, and Salem counties, along with portions of Gloucester and Ocean counties.
Election Analysts Revise Their Assessments
On October 29, Inside Elections changed its rating of the district from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
The Cook Political Report followed on October 30, making a similar adjustment.
These changes reflect updated assessments of the political environment, but neither organization has classified the race as a toss-up.
The district has traditionally been difficult for Democratic candidates, particularly after congressional district boundaries were redrawn.
Van Drew won reelection in 2024 with approximately 58% of the vote.
Three Candidates Compete for the Seat
Van Drew, a former Democrat who joined the Republican Party in 2019, has maintained a strong political presence in southern New Jersey.
He has emphasized immigration enforcement, public safety, economic development, and support for President Donald Trump’s policies.
Mullock, who serves as mayor of Cape May, is campaigning on affordability, healthcare, and economic concerns affecting residents of the district.
The Democratic candidate argues that voters should consider the impact of federal policies on household expenses and local communities.
Independent candidate Ramon Mora Jr. is also on the November ballot, offering voters an alternative to the two major parties.
Campaign Financing Shows a Significant Difference
Federal Election Commission records show a substantial gap in campaign fundraising.
According to financial disclosures covering activity through October 14, Van Drew’s campaign had raised approximately $2.41 million, compared with about $961,000 raised by Mullock.
Van Drew had spent approximately $2.28 million, while Mullock had spent about $856,000.
The difference in financial resources has allowed the incumbent to maintain a larger campaign operation.
However, fundraising figures alone do not establish how voters will cast their ballots.
Early Voting Draws Attention
Early voting figures have become another important part of the discussion surrounding the race.
According to an October 30 analysis by the New Jersey Monitor, Democratic voters had cast more ballots than Republicans in the district during the early voting period.
However, early voting participation does not reveal how every voter selected candidates, and party registration figures cannot be treated as election results.
The same analysis noted that the district’s political composition and the incumbent’s financial advantage remain important factors in understanding the contest.
What Will Voters Decide?
The November 3 election will determine who represents New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives for the next two years.
The race also contributes to the broader national contest for control of Congress, where both major parties are competing for seats across the country.
While recent ratings changes have brought additional attention to the district, they remain analytical assessments rather than measurements of actual votes.
The election will provide the clearest indication of whether the district’s political preferences have changed and how voters respond to the competing messages of the three candidates.
Sources: New Jersey Monitor, October 30, 2026; Cook Political Report, October 30, 2026; Inside Elections, October 29, 2026; Federal Election Commission; New Jersey Division of Elections.
By NJ RADAR Team